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These documents were scanned, collated and catalogued by Ruth Murray, Annabel Harris, Isha Pareek, Eleanor Williams, Antoine Yenk, Harriet Carter, Rosa Moore, Oliver Nicholls, Kieran Wetherwick, and Cerys Griffiths.
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CONFIDENTIAL FM DUBLIN TO DESKBY 241730Z FCO TELNO 409 OF 241445Z SEPTEMBER 92 INFO DESKBY 241730Z NIO(L), NIO(B) INFO IMMEDIATE UKREP BRUSSELS
PRIME MINISTER'S MEETING WITH THE TAOISEACH, 25 SEPTEMBER: SCENE-SETTER
SUMMARY
DETAIL
NORTHERN IRELAND
THE PRIME MINISTER HEARD THE TAOISEACH'S CONCERNS DIRECT BY TELEPHONE ON 22 SEPTEMBER. REYNOLDS IS WORRIED THAT THE POSTPONEMENT OF THE 1 GC IS DAMAGING THE ANGLO-IRISH AGREEMENT, AND THAT IF THE TALKS PROCESS WERE TO FAIL THE GAINS OF THE AGREEMENT (TO THE IRISH) WOULD BE LOST. HE IS SCEPTICAL ABOUT THE UNIONISTS COMMITMENT TO THE PROCESS: HENCE, PROBABLY, THE DEFENSIVE AND TACTICAL IRISH GAME SO FAR. HE WOULD LIKE THE IRISH AND OURSELVES TO SET AN AGREED COURSE - IDEALLY, UNITED IRELAND BY CONSENT - AND LIKE OTHER IRISH MINISTERS HE OVERESTIMATES HMG'S INFLUENCE OVER THE UNIONISTS. UNDERNEATH LINGER SUSPICIONS ABOUT HMG'S REAL INTENTIONS OVER NORTHERN IRELAND AND ABOUT OUR COMMITMENT TO THE AGREEMENT AND THE ANGLO-IRISH RELATIONSHIP SHOULD THE TALKS RUN INTO TROUBLE.
THE UNIONISTS' CONCENTRATION ON ARTICLES 2 AND 3 OF THE CONSTITUTION HAS STIRRED UP OPPOSITION TO THEIR AMENDMENT - ESPECIALLY AMONG THE GREENER ELEMENTS OF FIANNA FAIL.
EC/ECONOMIC MATTERS
THE TAOISEACH WILL WANT TO KNOW THE PRIME MINISTER'S VIEWS ON THE WAY AHEAD, AND IN PARTICULAR HOW HE PROPOSES TO HANDLE THE 16 OCTOBER COUNCIL. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE EVENTS OF THE LAST TEN DAYS FOR THE MAASTRICHT TREATY AND THE PLANNED COHESION FUND ARE OF SERIOUS CONCERN HERE. IRISH POLICY HAS LONG BEEN TO WORK FOR MONETARY STABILITY THROUGH THE EMS/ERM AND FOR AN ECONOMICALLY STRONG AND INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT EUROPE. THE TAOISEACH HAS SAID THAT FACED WITH A TWO (OR MULTI) SPEED EUROPE IRELAND WOULD STAY IN THE FIRST TIER, DESPITE ITS ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL LINKS WITH THE UK. IF PUSH COMES TO SHOVE HE WILL STICK TO THIS VIEW.
THE IRISH PUNT, KEPT AFLOAT LARGELY BY GOVERNMENT AND BUNDESBANK INTERVENTION (PERHAPS £2 BILLION) AND EXCHANGE CONTROLS (DUE TO GO ON 1 JANUARY), SLIPPED TO ITS ERM FLOOR EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT HAS RECOVERED. IT HAS RISEN BY ABOUT 10% AGAINST STERLING, TO ABOUT £1 = IR£1.03.
THE TAOISEACH IS LIKELY TO PRESS THE PRIME MINISTER FOR THE EARLY RETURN OF STERLING TO THE ERM, AND FOR MEASURES TO STABILIZE THE ERM. HE HAS SAID REPEATEDLY THAT THE IRISH PUNT WILL NOT BE DEVALUED, AND THE ECONOMY REMAINS STRONG (INFLATION 2.8%, GDP FORECAST GROWTH 3%, EXPECTED 1992 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SURPLUS 7.8% OF GDP, EBR 1.9% OF GNP, MANUFACTURING OUTPUT UP 11% SO FAR THIS YEAR). UNEMPLOYMENT, AT 20%, HAS BEEN THE GOVERNMENT'S BIGGEST WORRY, THOUGH THIS PARTLY REFLECTS POPULATION GROWTH AND A RETURN OF EMIGRANTS FROM BRITAIN. BUT SOME 30% OF IRISH TRADE IS WITH THE UK, AND THOUGH IRISH INDUSTRY HAS A COMPETITIVE EDGE OF SOME 15% AGAINST BRITAIN, THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY IS WORRIED THAT THE PRESENT PUNT/ STERLING RATE WILL HIT IRISH EXPORTS TO BRITAIN. MANY WOULD LIKE TO SEE STERLING DRIFT UP TO ABOUT ? 1 = IR?O.97, TO RESOLVE THE TENSIONS BETWEEN A CURRENCY ALIGNED WITH THE DEUTSCHMARK AND AN ECONOMY STILL LARGELY LINKED WITH THE UK.
INTERNAL POLITICS
(A) ABORTION: A REFERENDUM IS DUE PROBABLY IN LATE NOVEMBER. THE GOVERNMENT IS LOOKING FOR AN ALL-PARTY CONSENSUS, AND ON SO CONTENTIOUS A SUBJECT THE OTHER PARTIES ARE LIKELY TO AGREE. IF THEY DO, THE GOVERNMENT'S PROBLEMS WILL BE MUCH REDUCED.
(B) THE COALITION: RELATIONS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS (PD'S) ARE NOW SO BAD THAT THEY COULD HARDLY GET WORSE (ERGO, HOWEVER, THE COALITION SHOULD - BARRING ACCIDENTS - SURVIVE).
(C) THE CONSTRAINTS OF AN APPROACHING GENERAL ELECTION, DUE BY MID-1 994 AT THE LATEST AND GENERALLY EXPECTED IN MAY/JUNE 1993: WHILE THE TAOISEACH WANTS TO BE RID OF THE PD E S, HIS CHANCES OF SECURING A MAJORITY FIANNA FAIL GOVERNMENT ARE SLIM.
(D) THE NORTHERN IRELAND TALKS: SOME ISSUES - ESPECIALLY ARTICLES 2 AND 3 AND THE POSITION OF THE MINORITY IN NORTHERN IRELAND - COULD CAUSE STRAINS IN FIANNA FAIL AND THE TAOISEACH WILL BE WATCHING OUT FOR THEM.
BLATHERWICK
YYYY
DISTRIBUTION 6
ADVANCE 6
PS PS/PUS SIR T DAUNT RID//HD NIO LONDON RESIDENT CLERK
NNNN
65 1992 - 1997
3
20
9
56
61 1997 - 1997
84 1996 - 1997
112 1997 - 1997
4 1997
70 1997 - 1997
85 1997 - 1997
52 1997 - 1997
38 1991 - 1991
61 1991 - 1992
48 1992 - 1993
58 1993 - 1993
59 1993 - 1993
84 1993 - 1993
134 1993 - 1994
49 1996 - 1996
48 1996 - 1996
87 1996 - 1996
79 1996 - 1996
78 1996 - 1996
55 1996 - 1996
86 1996 - 1996
96 1992 - 1997
79 1996 - 1997
58 1996 - 1997
117 1996 - 1997
46 1997 - 1997
49 1996 - 1997
27 1988 - None
8 1989 - 1990
55 1990 - 1991
64 1991 - 1991
60 1993 - 1994
77 1993 - 1993
64 1993 - 1993
49 1993 - 1995
54 1993 - 1993
57 1993 - 1993
59 1993 - 1993
51 1993 - 1993
26 1993 - 1993
38 1993 - 1993
65 1993 - 1993
37 1993 - 1993
32 1993 - 1993
18 1993 - 1993
24 1993 - 1994
41 1993 - 1994
76 1993 - 1994
32 1993 - 1994
72 1993 - 1994
1 1994
33 1996 - 1996
14 1996 - 1997
4 1996 - 1996
41 1996 - 1996
33 1996 - 1996
30 1996 - 1996
7 1996 - 1996
24 1996 - 1996
17 1996 - 1996
9 1996 - 1996
59 1996 - 1996
74 1996 - 1996
71 1996 - 1996
22 1996 - 1996
77 1996 - 1996
67 1996 - 1996
26 1996 - 1996
20 1996 - 1997
32 1996 - 1996
47 1996 - 1996
10 1996 - 1996
31 1996 - 1996
45 1996 - 1996
17 196 - 1996
60 1996 - 1996
77 1996 - 1996
6 1996 - 1997
39 1996 - 1996
14 1996 - 1996
61 1996 - 1996
23 1996 - 1996
16 1996 - 1996
Expresses Irish concerns regarding the erosion of the Anglo-Irish Agreement, highlighting the considerable delays in the upcoming IGC and the apparent lack of Unionist commitment to engage in meaningful talks. Matters concerning the European Community, particularly Irish concerns about their currency stability and unemployment, are also noted. Troubles with the Irish domestic political position, particularly the abortion debate and the divisions of a coalition government, form relevant context.
N/A
N/A
Unless further or otherwise specified below, this material falls under Crown Copyright and contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
The National Archives of the UK (TNA), digitized by the Quill Project at https://quillproject.net/resource_collections/351/.